"The best lack all conviction
W.B Yeats - The Second Coming
and the worst are full of passionate intensity"
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
The Depression We Had To Have
In an interview with the Austrian newspaper Der Standard, he has blamed "market fundamentalism" for the crisis afflicting global capital markets. He could have a point.
Deregulated financial markets in the US allowed capital traders to create easy credit, with no oversight from the Federal reserve. This is turn led to inflated property values as a whole bunch of people jumped into a market they had no place being in the first place.
The loans were chalked up by financial institutions - some of them banks, but a lot simply mortgage warehouses - who onsold these liabilities to a lot of chumps left holding a pile of candy no one wants to eat.
The financial institutions reward themselves with NINE figure incomes (The CEO of one mortgage warehouse, Countrywide, was on US$615 Million a year) and walk away whistling while the end-gamers - often retirement funds and municipalities (including here in Australia) take a bath.
Meanwhile, the poor marker who took the loan just loses their house. In reaction - and this is reaction as in reactionary - the leading candidates in the current race to be Emporer Of The World are falling over themselves to embrace Keynesian pump priming. This will, of course, horrify the very "market fundamentalists" Soros has been warning about. But will the pump priming make any difference?
Welcome To The Wankersphere has pointed out that the US recession - which is an actuality, if not technical reality - stems from over inflated asset values, not a lack of economic activity. Yet. Which is precisely the problem that bedevils the Australian finance market. People borrowing against homes that are vastly over inflated. It's not hard to see what will happen once the Easy Credit crisis starts to haemorrhage around the globe.
We are already seeing it with the bearish stock market fluctuating like manic depressive on amphetamines. The real crunch will come in the form of a credit squeeze, the like of which we have not seen in some time. Which is no doubt why Central Banks are flooding capital markets in an attempt to stay that frabjous day.
But western capital reserves are not exactly flush - witness the US deficit - and diving further into an already empty cookie jar will have to be paid for somehow. Which is when the Chinese will come along with the greatest foreclosure of all, and bye-bye liberal democracy for the duration.
Mind you, this seems to fly obliquely over the heads of a general populace - concerned more about partying teenagers and sooky cricketers than the fact that the roof over their heads is about to disappear like Dorothy's house in Kansas.
Housing is a significant player in the Australian economy - if it tanks then it is going to screw up the retirement and savings plans of millions of Australians. The flow on through the economy by a credit squeeze will affect the big employment sectors of retail and hospitality. We could see money dry up, along with jobs. All this at a time when the economy is 'growing'.
Of course a lot of this stems from the legacy of ten years of doing nothing with the proceeds of a mining boom apart from splashing cash around and inflating a housing bubble (that's now about to burst).
While responsibility lies with Howard and Costello, this won't wash with the Australian public - they'll be calling for Wayne Swan's head on a stick by Christmas. I noticed that the Harvey Norman retail chain has announced sales growth of over A$3 Billion, or a little over 12%, for the first half of this financial year. The bulk of these sales will be on credit, and if we drop into a recession that looks like being of the scale that Soros predicts, Harvey Norman won't see half of that money.
This is the problem with credit - it only works if there's a capacity to repay - and years of supply side market fundamentalism has destroyed the household sector's ability to do exactly that.
I was travelling back from Lithgow before New Year and was amazed at the number of cars, boats and bikes saw on the side of the road for sale.
The last time I remember this phenomenon was in 1990 when the then treasurer Paul Keating was assuring us that there was no recession . Later that became the recession we had to have.
This recession promises to be much deeper, as Soros has pointed out. The financial sector has gone a bridge too far - simultaneously calling for, and getting, policies that squeeze those on the bottom, then trying to milk those very same people through credit, as Ralph Nader pointed out this week.
They could never have it both ways and now the harvest shall be reaped. And a bitter harvest it will prove to be.
Play Abandoned #22 - We Hate Ricky
The Indians and the media had cricketer A. Mongrel dropped from the Australian XI and they lost. The same player was not selected in the Wallaby World Cup team and they lost.Lewis may wish to reflect on the fact that A Mongrel is an insecure little bully who shouldn't be on the sporting field in the first place - and if winning means winning ugly, then it is no victory at all. In the meantime the Third Test in Perth was a cracker. With a highlight being Sharma having R. Ponting all over the place, the first time I've ever seen him batting like that. Ponting looked all at sea against the young Indian quick - weaving, leaving, missing and taking a few on the body before edging to first slip. With the series at 2-1 to Australia, there is a lot to play for in Adelaide. If the Indians finish this series 2-2, with a moral victory in Sydney, they will be well set to roll Australia in India this September. There is no doubt Australia missed Hayden, who was suspiciously omitted after the shenanigans in Sydney. The godbotherer was officially out with a bung leg, but was fit enough to go deep sea fishing the day after the 'injury'. But the Indians bowled better, and batted well when it counted. A spirited rear guard action made the final day's play a riveting spectacle. Adelaide, a city not known for its excitement, could be a defining moment - not just for this summer, but also for Australian cricket. If the Indians win, it could mark the end of an era.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The Man Who Wasn't There
Bill Gross, the insightful managing director of PIMCO, the major bond-investment house, has called for virtually doubling the federal deficit in order pump hundreds of billions into new economic activity. When bond holders are more alarmed about the economy than political leaders, you know something is backwards in American politics.This is gonna be one hell of a ride kids. There may just be enough fuel in the tank for this election to turn into an "I'm more left wing than you" slanging match. Bring it on I say; after all, these people are shallow enough and hopeless enough to get led around by pundits and pollsters then this is the sort of lunatic groupthink it leads to. In the meantime the architect of returning to the sanity of a pump priming economy after three decades of supply side economic madness, John Edwards, has been run over in the stampede by Obama and Clinton to seize the populist high ground. Strange days indeed. As the good Doctor would say, Mahalo
Monday, January 14, 2008
Vote Kang
Very very funny
On Weirdo Cults And Loving Thy Neighbour
In fact the group is The Twelve Tribes The Commonwealth Of Israel, a messianic cult.
On their website they proclaim that living in the Blue Mountains allows them to hear the voice of creation - which apparently sounds something like a hammerdrill, with these bananas out since sparrow's fart wielding one for the last week, punching bricks off the front of their 'shop'.
The hammerdrill is such a soothing sound. It promotes calmness and concentration. It is like meditating whilst having your temples sliced off with a rusty razor blade.
It could be karmic - hell, I've never been in the running for neighbour of the year - but it's not just my discomfiture that is causing me concern here.
Rather it is the very nature of the groupthink over the road.
They moved in about five years ago, buying up a dilapidated building in the middle of Katoomba. One of those pre-war brick edifices that takes advantage of the sloping terrain to create three stories where there should be two.
The group themselves is populated by about half a dozen or so bearded chaps who seem to spend their entire day beating swords into ploughshares. They have turned their back on society (well, that part of society that involves engaging with the community - they seem to be very happy with that part of society that uses power tools and spends money on their organic mush - more on that later), and appear to believe that God is some kind of DIY handyman - a sort of cross between Charlie Manson and Backyard Blitz - which isn't far from the truth, as the cult was founded by a former carnival spruiker and has some weird beliefs.
The bearded band of brothers is accompanied by about three or four permanently fecund womenfolk, who appear in handmade dowdiness reminiscent of the nineteenth century, along with about half a dozen overly energetic kids who appear to be insane with boredom. Which is not surprising given that The Twelve Tribes' "teachings instruct that children not play with toys, play imaginary or fantasy games, have candy, or watch television or movies".
When there is a stubborn child you should shorten the child's life. It limits the family.
- from "Training Up Our Children In The Way They Should Go" by the Twelve Tribes.
No one has called the Department of Community Services yet, as they tend to keep to themselves - except when doing some kind of passive-aggressive good deed, which always seems to be in their interest. But this is not the case elesewhere, where their activities have drawn the attention of the authorities.
One of the cultists delivers papers for the local newsagent, while another helps the arsehole with the furniture store on the corner.* They make their quids by trucking around to festivals far and wide where they dispense wholesome food for a fee and, according to their website, they live off the proceeds from two other communities, including one in Picton, where income is generated from plumbing, building and running the 'Common Ground Cafe' at festivals around the place. So, while they reject the licentiousness of popular culture, they are more than happy to make a quid out of it.
They shared the building with a Chilean upholsterer called Raoul and a Thai restaurant. They 'did up' Raoul's upholstery business preises (a garage) and then promptly evicted him. They're in the process of turfing out the popular Thai restaurant as well.
On top of all this they've been doing up the building, which in and of itself sounds like a good thing - until you have an angle grinder starting up at 7am on a Saturday morning.
They've been threatening to 'open' their organic cafe for about three years, but their always seems to be some bit of work that needs to be done that stymies their ability to 'open'. A lot like those people that build seagoing boats in the backyard - the whole project appears to never be meant for completion, with the constant building being reason enough for existence.
Which, of course, is symptomatic of cults - keep the kids busy and they never get their head around how they're the butt of some narcissists weird joke.
All of their activities, from evicting the infidels to the ever present home-handyman-for-Jesus routine, is accompanied by the passive-aggressive smug superior air associated with your usual cult-like activity.
They pepper this with a lot of pseudo-biblical tosh, claiming to be the first real Christians (where have we heard that before) since the Apostles - with what we understand to be Christianity actually run by Satan (which will be news to Aaron Badderley) - along with some homey palaver parried around as a 'revelation' and being (yawn) God's Chosen People, all underpinned by the usual 'get out of jail free card' gibber that passes as playing on your average human's fear of death. They all want to go to heaven, but they don't want to die.
But what really exposes these people for the cant that they are is the hypocrisy of their brotherly love - which, of course, doesn't extend to loving unbelieving brothers (ask Raoul) or even members of their own flock. Like every other manifestation of religion there are haves and have-nots, rulers and ruled, bosses and slaves - and the Golden Rule applies, those with the gold, rule - controlling the lives of the cult's footsoldiers, who end up doing all the dirty work. It's laizzes faire capitalism with a beard.
As my live-in Legal Counsel says, "it sounds like typical religious dribble", and he's right.
So, if you're out at a festival and you see the Common Ground Cafe, just remember they think their urine is nice and clean.
Enjoy the coffee.
* This bottom feeder unilaterally turned off my neighbours power supply a while back in some weird attempt to avoid a power bill, then refused the electrician access to turn it back on again, complained about the car parking arrangements and has generally managed to give everyone the shits in a five kilometre radius.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Thoughts On George Orwell
His descent into writing was no accident. As a 'scholarship boy' at Eton he grew to hate the wealthy, understanding all too well the relationship between money and power.
It was Eric Blair that went off to civilise Empire in the twenties, serving in the Imperial Police Service in Burma, before delving deep into the underclass of Britain and France. The experiences that informed his first books and essays.
Equally, he despaired of the 'keeping up of appearances' inherent in the shabby genteel English middle class.
His knowledge of power informed his attitude to class - that defining structure of English life - roughly if passionately expressed in books like Coming Up For Air and Keep the Aspidistra Flying. But equally he saw the flaws of the working class for what they were, and he understood them far better than many of his middle and upper class 'friends' on the left in the thirties.
Orwell's wartime essays and classic The Road To Wigan Pier reveal his experiences amongst the invisible people that kept England functioning. He rightly predicted that the protesting English working class of the thirties would turn out to be patriots when the crunch came. He understood the paradoxes that made ordinary people in a way that few writers have before or since.
In many ways he was a misanthrope, never more happier than in his garden or around animals, although paradoxically imbued with a tolerance for his fellow human beings that eclipsed his acerbic writing.
He was no backscratcher, savaging friends and foes alike with his typewriter. In one famous incident he referred to Stephen Spender as a 'useless Nancy poet', then invited him out to dinner. He has the same relationship with H.G. Wells, that lead to Wells cutting off their friendship after an Orwell essay ripped Wells' utopian visions of future technology to shreds.
It was the sort of intellectual rigour that railed against the black and white vision of the cult of Russia Communists in the world of letters. He had a strong aversion to hubris.
But in the end the man who fought with the Trotskyites in the Spanish Civil war has his grand work, Nineteen Eighty Four, appropriated by the Right. His political legacy bastardised by bastards.
Orwell, of course, was criticising from the left. He realised how power worked and this book is an indictment of the language used today by the free market - the Market Totalitarianism that tells us that food is 'light but filling', that McDonalds has 'healthy choices', or that going into debt through easy credit is 'freedom'.
Newspeak is Advertising 101, and the world of telescreens and constant surveillance has been brought to us by marketing corporations as much as by government.
Orwell was a socialist who understood that freedom was something to be acted by control of your life, not being controlled by employers, landlords and debtors.
Animal Farm and Nineteen Eighty Four are books that started on the Road To Wigan Pier and were honed by the duplicity of his experiences on the Aragon front in Catalonia and, later, in Barcelona.
Although his writing was hijacked by the Right during the cold war (a term he invented in the thirties to describe the relationship between liberal democracy and totalitarian states such as Russia and Germany) the humanism of his writing lives through.
Despite Orwell's warnings freedom in the west is more undermined than ever in our permanent war against an adjective (terrorist), when the real threat to our lifestyle comes from insatiable consumer culture.
A man who himself possessed a keen sense of irony and a black humour I have no doubt he would chuckle at the thought of his greatest invention - Big Brother - being used to sell cosmetics to pre-teens and immature western adults. He was a man that understood that colonisation started from the mind before it enslaved the body and he foresaw an age when XBox, McDonalds and Coca-Cola would define freedom over the right to a dissenting lifestyle and the right to air grievances.
As a member of the ordinary poor I find Eric "George Orwell" Blair an inspiration in these days of having to believe five contradictory ideas before breakfast in order to function in this society. Nineteen Eighty Four (he always insisted on spelling it out) and Animal Farm are as removed from the solopsistic hubris of our times as barbed-wire is removed from comfort.
In the end Eric Blair died and George Orwell lived. And Eric Arthur Blair was buried by a millionaire, Lord Astor, with a fresh wife, Sonia Brownell, who had been installed there by his publisher Frederic Warburg to ensure his literary estate was in pliable hands.
His funeral was organised by a mate of Malcolm Muggeridge - himself a temporary class traitor who returned to his roots before too long.
Orwell's most recent Biography, Orwell, A Life by D.J. Taylor (Henry Holt and Company), points to Warburg's CIA connections, and it is hardly a state secret that the CIA saw in Orwell an opportunity to win their hearts and minds battle in Europe.
His widow spent a lot of time keeping his for more left-wing essay writing from the public eye until hounded into publishing his essays in the early seventies by a combination of dwindling finances and estrangement from the people (like Warburg) who had put her where she was. Orwell was no saint - being a bit of a pants man - but then again who of worth is.
He liked a drink and smoked like a chimney. Enjoyed Opium in Burma and a few friends wives.
In his essay on Dali he pointed out a shocking fact to the modernists and classicists of his age; an artist could be a good artist and a lousy human being. It's probably the first post-modernist essay in English.
He pretty much invented the socio-political essay as an artform, and gave us an insight into 'ordinary things' that are too often ignored by our visionary betters in academia.
His legacy is profound, if a little misunderstood.
I still know lefties of a certain age who hate him because he attacked Mother Russia; but who on the left really just wants to join a cult that replaces one boss with another boss?
Maybe he was, as he described himself, a Tory Anarchist. After all, he had little love of bureaucracy and a was a withering critic of power for power's sake.
I don't think we should worship him, but I do think we should listen to him, and watch how his ideas about power and language assault us every day from supermarket shelves, televisions and press statements.
He is a valuable voice, but the greatest appropriation of his work in our time is a bizarre game show.
Eric Arthur Blair FAMOUS AUTHOR, lived briefly and died young (he was only 46 when the TB got him), but George Orwell found immortality, escaping Eton, the Left, and now even the Right, to become a spectre, haunting those who seek to manipulate words to dubious ends. For that alone he is to be thanked.
Play Abandoned #21 - The Beginning Of The End
Any resemblance to persons living or dead I consider a compliment.
Whacky Conspiracy Theories 101
Play Abandoned #20 - Making A Monkey Out Of All Of Us
Monday, January 7, 2008
Playing Hide And Seek In The Library Of Alexandria
On blogs in general, a warning I found in this book by Michael Dibden (a crime novel set in Sicily actually), when the cops were talking about the backward beliefs of the locals versus so called sophisticated enlightenment people:"...after all, just what are we doing with these values? Take the internet. Here's the most powerful intellectual tool in the history of the human race and we use it to write narcissitic online journals and to "have our say" like a swarm of squabbling starlings. Enlightenment values? We're playing hide and seek in the library of Alexandria"
Not For Publication I
-----Original Message----- From: Methuselah Sent: Wednesday, 12 December 2007 12:46 AM To: SMH Letters Mail Subject: Letter to Ed Don't worry Rosemary O'Brien (Letters, December 12), as someone who has been reading your mendacious tosh for years, I'll take great satisfaction in reminding people of it for decades to come - just so any myths don't get out of hand.
And I received this reply
Hi Methuselah
Even though this wins my unofficial Letter of the Week award, I don't
want to encourage a general slanging match between and about
correspondents (especially Rosemary O'Brien) so I'm afraid I won't be
publishing it. But thanks a lot for sending it.
Letters co-editor
The Quiet American
Its like what my painter friend Donald said to me Stick a fork in their ass and turn them over, they're doneHave a nice day!
Friday, January 4, 2008
Tool Of The Week: There Is No I In Iemma
Tool Of The Week Maurice Iemma is now making Barry Unsworth look like David Beckham.
Unsworth, of course, was the laughable log swept away by the Greiner landslide in 1988, when the ALP received swings against it of up to 25%.
On a positive note, Iemma is doing a spectacular job in filling the void left by the hopeless incompetence of the late Howard administration.
Just when we were thinking we’d miss the bumbling keystone cops performance of Julie Bishop, Kevin Andrews, Philip Ruddock and Tony Abbott, along comes the star team of Joe Tripodi, Reba Meagher, John Hurtzhisgoats and Michael “Doctor Evil” Costa.
And, as the Omo commercial says, just look at the results!
People dropping foetuses in hospital toilets, ships getting the OK to park on beaches, cops with a vague understanding of the rule of law and the state’s electricity network put on eBay for the highest bidder to snap up.
Which doesn’t even cover the sterling state of transport in a city gridlocked by pay-as-you-go freeways; trains that are dangerous, filthy and unreliable; buses that are overcrowded and even more unreliable and a ferry service that is about to be flogged off to the Pirates of Penzance.
The problem with Iemma is that he has too many number one priorities.
He inherited Job Creation as the “number one priority” of the Carr Government - itself a wilfully useless administration run by an egomaniacal weirdo who was half nerd, half spin-doctor android that left the mess we have inherited today.
Actually, you wouldn’t have thought that Iemma could have done any worse than Carr at first glance, but it’s a tribute to his incompetence that he has managed to wreak further damage and continue to lower public administration standards even further.
Of course the man who replaced public accountability with spin and schmoozing while the state went to hell in a handbasket had already run through education, police numbers and crime as various number one priorities in his time.
After the state election Morris Iemma was to make public transport a number one priority - the result being that public transport got infinitely worse, with a part of that number one priority - ferries - to be sold off.
Certainly selling something is a unique take on making it a priority - and extraordinary evidence of a complete absence of responsibility to not only the people who he is responsible to, the citizens of NSW, but even to his job, his legacy and himself.
By December 2007 he had narrowed down his number one priority to commuters. No doubt preparing to sell them somewhere - down the river no doubt - before too long.
The New Year dawned with a new number one priority - health. With Morris playing a straight man to the Jerry Lewis performance of the Turrumurra girl who doesn’t even like the area she represents, Reba Meagher the member for Cabramatta - who believes that politics is about getting power and, ahh, getting power and, ummm, power apparently.
The reality is that Maurice Iemma has taken public administration to a low not seen for a century.
We have to go back about a hundred years ago, to the days of Paddy Crick to find someone as willfully and incompetently corrupt as Iemma - and at least Paddy Crick got thrown out of parliament after urinating in the corner of the parliamentary chamber.
The reality is that Iemma’s real number one priority is the same it has been since the days in the eighties when he joined Young Labor. His number one priority has been his own personal self-aggrandizement, regardless of how far his abilities fall short of his responsibilities
Like his mates Reba Meagher and Joe Tripodi, little Maurice believed in nothing then, and he believes in nothing now.
He put on his furious face when Stephen Chaytor, the state member for Macquarie Fields, was accused of domestic violence, throwing Chaytor out of the party and saying he had a zero tolerance to domestic violence.
Curiously though when similar allegations were aimed at Blue Mountains MP Phil Koperberg all Iemma could do was mumble a press release. Some are obviously more equal than others.
Another shining example of the competence, consistency and intellectual gymnastics of the man who stands for nothing, does nothing and still manages to screw things up monumentally.
His latest brain explosion surrounds the rather novel idea that we will be better off if we lease off our power assets to people motivated purely by profit. It’s an extraordinarily feeble argument that we will expect people to do good when they are motivated by the most loathsome of motives. That a privatized power generator will somehow do all sorts of wonderful things despite the fact that it has been a screaming disaster in every single jurisdiction where power privatization has been implemented.
The cleverest and most decent thing that Iemma could do is resign and get a job driving a courier van, which he may be ideally suited for - given that he appears to be motivated primarily by what the last journalist told him.
Then we can hand executive power over to the person who really runs NSW, the former front man for Adelaide band Cerveza Y Putas (Spanish for Beer And Wh*res), Daily Telegraph Editor David Pemberthy.